Imprecise probabilities in engineering analyses
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Imprecise Probabilities in Engineering Analyses
Probabilistic uncertainty and imprecision in structural parameters and in environmental conditions and loads are challenging phenomena in engineering analyses. They require appropriate mathematical modeling and quanti cation to obtain realistic results when predicting the behavior and reliability of engineering structures and systems. But the modeling and quanti cation is complicated by the cha...
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In engineering design problems, we want to make sure that a certain quantity c of the designed system lies within given bounds – or at least that the probability of this quantity to be outside these bounds does not exceed a given threshold. We may have several such requirements – thus the requirement can be formulated as bounds [F c(x), F c(x)] on the cumulative distribution function Fc(x) of t...
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Consider the uncertainty about whether it will rain in Brisbane next weekend. A weather forecaster may be able to assess a precise probability of rain, such as 0.3285 . . . , although even an expert should feel uncomfortable about specifying a probability to more than one or two decimal places. Someone who has little information about the prospects for rain may be able to make only an imprecise...
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Engineering design decisions inherently are made under risk and uncertainty. The characterization of this uncertainty is an essential step in the decision process. In this paper, we consider imprecise probabilities (e.g. intervals of probabilities) to express explicitly the precision with which something is known. Imprecision can arise from fundamental indeterminacy in the available evidence or...
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An imprecise probability distribution is an instance of second-order uncertainty, that is, uncertainty about uncertainty, or uncertainty for short. Another instance is an imprecise possibility distribution. Computation with imprecise probabilities is not an academic exercise—it is a bridge to reality. In the real world, imprecise probabilities are the norm rather than exception. In large measur...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0888-3270
DOI: 10.1016/j.ymssp.2013.01.024